Friday, July 20, 2012

The Current Political Chaos in Egypt


I had intended my first blog post upon my return to Egypt to comment on the current political situation, which is what I was most eager to witness and understand first hand. Over two weeks later, I am just as confused as I was before I left. What I can say is that Egyptians seem to be no less confused. I have heard tirades supporting and condemning Muhammad Mursi, the recently elected President from the Muslim Brotherhood. In general, the majority of family members I’ve talked to seem to at least think that his winning the election was the lesser of two evils, but they are still cautious to be at all optimistic. Many criticize his delay in assembling a cabinet or addressing any of the numerous pressing problems that Egypt faces (some as simple as the quality of subsidized bread for the impoverished 50% of Egypt’s population).

Everyone is pondering his strategy thus far for gaining popularity: continuing to live as an average Egyptian, and making himself very visible and accessible to the public. After he was elected, he refused to move into the presidential palace, the former residence of Mubarak. He continues to live in his apartment with his family. Some people recently met him while waiting in line for bread at a bakery. A friend of mine saw his wife walk into a mosque in our neighborhood. We passed his convoy on the highway: at least a kilometer’s worth of motorcycles and sleek black cars that held us up on the ramp for all of maybe three minutes. (This is shockingly modest compared to the ordeal Mubarak used to impose, which typically involved completely blocking several routes through Cairo that he may or may not use, often trapping people in traffic for seven or eight hours.) Mursi seems to be deliberately taking the opposite approach in order to distinguish himself from the old regime and give people the impression that he truly represents them. On night that he was elected, he stood on a platform in Tahrir Square and announced that he was not wearing a bulletproof vest. I would call this move both stupid and brilliant. I’m sure he’s just about given each of his security guards an aneurism, but regardless of his politics, I have to admire his courage and his gesture.

I have heard similarly conflicting opinions regarding Ahmad Shafik, Mursi’s opponent in the final run-off election and a former prime minister under Mubarak’s rule. Some Egyptians are still convinced that he would have been a better candidate, arguing that he demonstrated some honesty during Mubarak’s rule, and his questionable actions were pressured by his circumstance. Many others believe that a victory for Shafik would have been disastrous and a debilitating step backwards for the revolution. At least one cousin I’ve spoken to was prepared to leave the country if he had won the election. I may well have cancelled my trip to Egypt this summer if that had been the case, and I’m certain that having Shafik in power would have seriously complicated my personal and professional plans in Egypt for the immediate future. I for one am glad to see Shafik out of the picture (in fact, he fled to Abu Dhabi soon after the election was decided, because the court apparently decided to resurface the dozens of allegations against him that I suppose where conveniently suspended while he was running).

For now, I will remain cautiously optimistic about Mursi. Honestly though, I don’t expect him to accomplish anything for a while, with all the bickering and tricks going back and forth between the parliament and the SCAF (Supreme Council of the Armed Forces – the ruling body representing the military). The SCAF is still trying to hang on to whatever power they can. Case in point: their most recent move was to dissolve the parliament a couple weeks ago, claiming that the parliamentary elections had not been carried out democratically because not enough independent party candidates were permitted to run. The Constitutional Court ruled with them in this case, also declaring that the parliamentary elections had been unconstitutional and the parliament should be dismissed. Then as soon as Mursi took office, he rebuked the SCAF’s decision and declared that he intended the parliament to remain. Now the country is split between those who support Mursi’s decision and those who are damning the new president for defying the Constitutional Court. The final decision might be put to the people in a referendum.

Imagine if the American Legislative and Executive Branches were questioning each other’s authority (which goes beyond the new norm of arguing to the point of stale mate), and the Judicial Branch made a ruling to decide the matter, but then the Legislative and Executive Branches questioned the legitimacy of the Supreme Court… How in the world would anything get solved?

On top of that, people are wondering if Mursi will even still be president in six months, because technically he was elected without a constitution in place (a referendum was passed after Mubarak stepped down, deciding that the old constitution would be retained with some amendments, but apparently that’s still in the works). Some are arguing that once Egypt actually has a new constitution, a new president should come with it. 

Like I said, it may be a while before any political progress is made in Egypt. In the meantime, however, life goes on…

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