Egypt in a tailspin...

Events in Egypt over the last week have been horrendous. Conflicting accounts, rumors, and widespread propaganda also make it difficult to get a clear picture of the situation. I have been following Western media as well as Egyptian sources, and will do my best to objectively summarize the recent developments...


- The Egyptian army is essentially ruling the country now. They have been since July 3 when they removed former President Morsi by popular demand. They assembled a civilian government, which is why many Egyptians have refused to call the maneuver a coup. But it has become clear in the last week that the army, not the government, is calling most of the shots. Hence, Western media is more concerned with the statements of General el-Sisi than acting President Mansour. Both the army and the government, who has official authority over the police, are working to quell the protests of the Muslim Brotherhood and its supporters.

- The death toll among Muslim Brotherhood members and supporters since the government/military's violent crack-down last Wednesday now exceeds 1,000.

- Thirty-six Morsi supporters who had been detained by police were confirmed dead Monday morning. The circumstances of their deaths are not clear: police said the detainees suffocated from tear gas while trying to escape, however some of the bodies showed evidence of burning and torture. 

- The spiritual leader of the Muslim Brotherhood, Mohamed Badie, was arrested by police on Tuesday. Egyptian networks broadcast footage of Badie in captivity. 

- Other Islamist groups have allied themselves with the Muslim Brotherhood, and are participating in the protests against the government and army. 

- Dozens of Coptic churches have been attacked, along with Coptic orphanages and libraries. The Egyptian government blames the attacks on Islamists. However, Islamists say that they did not initiate these attacks. It is possible that the government has been hiring people to attack Coptic churches and institutions so that the government can accuse the Islamists of sectarian violence. 

- Northern Sinai has become an essentially lawless territory. On Monday morning, militants attacked police minibuses near the town of Rafah, and executed 25 officers. 

- All Egyptian news networks have been supporting the government/army, and condemning the Muslim Brotherhood as terrorists. The Arab news network Al Jazeera was forced to close its office in Cairo, accused by the government of sympathizing with the Muslim Brotherhood.

- The government and many Egyptians are also accusing Western media networks of sympathizing with the Muslim Brotherhood, saying that they are too focused on the number of deaths while they overlook the violence that has been instigated by Muslim Brotherhood members and supporters.

- The Egyptian government continues to assert that its actions against the Muslim Brotherhood are entirely justified, claiming that the Muslim Brotherhood is a terrorist organization that must be eradicated.

- The Muslim Brotherhood maintains that Morsi was wrongfully removed from office, that the recent crack down on their members and supporters was an unwarranted massacre, and that they will not cease to resist attacks from the government or military.

- Obama still has not made a decision as to whether he will halt the annual foreign aid that the U.S. government gives to the Egyptian military.

Objective headlines aside, I now comment on the most ironic headline of the week: 

Mubarak has been released from prison.

Former president Hosni Mubarak was released from prison today, after appealing his detention and serving the maximum pre-trial detention period allowed for his corruption case. He still faces charges of corruption and complicity in the deaths of protestors during the initial 2011 uprising. Mubarak will kept under house arrest. For now.

The prosecution has failed thus far to produce any concrete evidence that would convict Mubarak. Clearly, the prosecution is either totally incompetent or a complete sham.  

The government seems to assume that Egyptians have largely forgotten about Mubarak, and that his release will draw little attention amidst the current chaos. A crowd of Mubarak supporters  - believe it or not - actually gathered around the prison today to celebrate his release. 

I do not think the majority's memory is that short. As infuriating as it is, perhaps Mubarak's release will prompt Egyptians to remember the common cause they shared at the start of the Revolution, and bring to light the blatant corruption that persists in the government. (e.g., Are Egyptians not concerned or suspicious that so many current top government officials are former members of Mubarak's cabinet?)

I do not support either side of this brutal conflict. I was optimistic about Morsi's election a year ago, and I was optimistic when the army removed him and assembled a new government in early July. Now I believe that both sides are grossly misguided. And it makes me heartsick to see violence persist in Egypt, regardless of who the victims are. I fear that neither the government, nor the military, nor the Muslim Brotherhood are acting in the interest of the country at large. It has become a battle of wills for self-preservation, with no end in sight. 

The Darkest Day Yet...

Yesterday was a horrible, horrible day for Egypt. By far the worst incident since the Revolution began. 

Egyptian security forces executed a brutal crackdown yesterday on Morsi supporters who had been camped in two Cairo locations since Morsi's ouster in late June. Whatever the initial intensions were, the situation rapidly spun out of control. The death toll now exceeds 600, along with over 3,000 injured.

There is no justification for such senseless violence and bloodshed. And the failure of this new nascent government is even worse than the failure of Morsi's. The new government was composed of what seemed like objective, forward-thinking technocrats who wanted to compensate for the ineptitude of Morsi's party. Now they've made things even worse. The violence and chaos they have caused is even worse than the neglect of Morsi's government. 

I don't see what the government hoped to accomplish by authorizing this move - whoever's decision it actually was -  but they shot themselves in the foot by making martyrs of the Muslim Brotherhood.  

This is the first time in this whole ordeal that I'm really feeling despair - even more so than in the 18 days in 2011 when we didn't know how long it would take for Mubarek to step down. At least then there was a single evil entity, a single goal to rally behind. Now the situation is worse. No one is ready to lead. Everyone is confused and emotional. We thought the new interim government would provide a rational, more careful movement in the right direction, but not anymore. ElBaradei was smart to resign immediately yesterday - I hope that he will step up again when a new government is ready to form. The existing interim government will dissolve under internal and international pressure. The military will likely run the show for a while, which will not ease tensions within the population. Eventually, another transitional government will form, and the cycle will begin again - hopefully, next time, with peace and actual progress.

The good news is that I do not think the situation in Egypt will deteriorate to that of Syria. As bad as things are, the conflicts and divisions in Egypt are different and do not run as deep as those in Syria. Syria is still in a war between the populace and a tyrant whose allies and resources are greater and tighter than what Mubarek had, especially because Syria does not have an army that operates independent of the government. Egypt's struggles boil down to a lack of agreement over the best new direction for the country, and heated emotions and frustrations on all sides. 

I still firmly believe that Egypt has a brighter future ahead. In the immediate future, however, it may be a longer and more difficult struggle than I had hoped for. I doubt that anyone thought it would come to this, and it will be a while before any real solution presents itself. We just have to be patient and supportive, and hope for the best.