I had been optimistic about Egypt's progress since the inauguration of the country's first democratically elected president, Muhammad Morsi, in June 2012. But ever since January 25, 2013, it seems that Egypt may have to start over its transition to democracy. On that second anniversary of the Egyptian Revolution, thousands of Egyptians launched new demonstrations to protest President Morsi's poor leadership. After nine months in office, the new president has failed to address Egypt's mounting political, social, and economic problems. Egyptians are furious, and many see President Morsi as a puppet of the Muslim Brotherhood. Although it was the most organized party in Egypt at the time of the elections, the Muslim Brotherhood has proved that it lacks the capacity to function as a governing political party.
This new wave of demonstrations has resulted in more deaths and injuries. Just last Friday, supporters and opponents of the Muslim Brotherhood clashed in the streets around the party's headquarters, with at least 40 people injured. Meanwhile, corruption is still pervasive, the economy suffers, and safety is a major concern for every citizen. Harassment of women in public has escalated. The situation has so deteriorated that I decided to cancel a trip to Egypt I had planned for this month.
On the bright side, daily life continues for the average Egyptian, though with increased precautions and difficulties.
Fareed Zakaria recently made an excellent point on his show, Global Public Square: he said that "constitutions should take precedence over elections." He compared Egypt's Revolution to recent events in Jordan: Egypt ousted its old regime, while Jordan's King Abdullah responded to protests by making a few personnel changes and promising reform. Here, the former would seem more in keeping with a revolution agenda.
When it came time to decide how to reform the country's government, Egypt "chose democratization before liberalization." They prioritized free elections, which resulted in a new president and, subsequently, a new constitution. Not surprisingly, the most organized group in the country, the Muslim Brotherhood, was able to dominate the elections and the drafting of the new constitution. And now (whether by their fault alone or not), the newly ratified constitution still carries many flaws: it fails to protect women's rights, and it allows for government censorship of the media. The role of the president is still poorly defined - in November, President Morsi declared that his word trumps that of the court or any other branch of government. (Some would argue that he was justified in this attempt because the court was making it impossible for him to accomplish anything, but the fact remains that every branch of a democratic government must be subject to checks and balances. President Morsi later rescinded this decree.)
In Jordan, by contrast, King Abdullah's first move was to appoint a council to review and amend the constitution. The council transferred some monarchical power to the Parliament and created an independent committee to oversee elections. The elections were held in late January of this year. Ironically, the elections were boycotted by the Muslim Brotherhood in Jordan, who complained that the changes in Jordan had been too minimal, and that King Abdullah was clinging to power.
But the elections were a success: 56% of eligible voters participated, the best election turnout Jordan has ever seen. Many of the newly elected officials are opposition members, and women now make up 12% of the new parliament, thanks to a quota set by the election committee. While he still retains the upper authority, King Abdullah now rules over a constitutional monarchy.
While this analysis may suggest that Jordan is having a more successful transition, keep in mind the difference between the Egyptian and Jordanian Revolutions: Egypt deposed its political leader and Jordan did not. Jordan's King Abdullah was willing to make concessions. Egypt's former President Mubarak was not willing to change anything. (He made some dubious promises of reform during Egypt's 18-day revolution, but it was clear that he would never act on them - especially after his declaration, on the eve of his ouster, that nothing would make him back down.)
Egypt had no choice but to get rid of its leader. The road to building a democracy for the first time was inevitably going to be slow and frustrating. Yes, they would have done better to ratify a constitution before electing a president - and I suspect that's what will happen now, once President Morsi is removed from office. Jordanians were lucky - they did not have to start from scratch. Hopefully, Egypt will be able to benefit from Jordan's example.
