Egypt in a tailspin...

Events in Egypt over the last week have been horrendous. Conflicting accounts, rumors, and widespread propaganda also make it difficult to get a clear picture of the situation. I have been following Western media as well as Egyptian sources, and will do my best to objectively summarize the recent developments...


- The Egyptian army is essentially ruling the country now. They have been since July 3 when they removed former President Morsi by popular demand. They assembled a civilian government, which is why many Egyptians have refused to call the maneuver a coup. But it has become clear in the last week that the army, not the government, is calling most of the shots. Hence, Western media is more concerned with the statements of General el-Sisi than acting President Mansour. Both the army and the government, who has official authority over the police, are working to quell the protests of the Muslim Brotherhood and its supporters.

- The death toll among Muslim Brotherhood members and supporters since the government/military's violent crack-down last Wednesday now exceeds 1,000.

- Thirty-six Morsi supporters who had been detained by police were confirmed dead Monday morning. The circumstances of their deaths are not clear: police said the detainees suffocated from tear gas while trying to escape, however some of the bodies showed evidence of burning and torture. 

- The spiritual leader of the Muslim Brotherhood, Mohamed Badie, was arrested by police on Tuesday. Egyptian networks broadcast footage of Badie in captivity. 

- Other Islamist groups have allied themselves with the Muslim Brotherhood, and are participating in the protests against the government and army. 

- Dozens of Coptic churches have been attacked, along with Coptic orphanages and libraries. The Egyptian government blames the attacks on Islamists. However, Islamists say that they did not initiate these attacks. It is possible that the government has been hiring people to attack Coptic churches and institutions so that the government can accuse the Islamists of sectarian violence. 

- Northern Sinai has become an essentially lawless territory. On Monday morning, militants attacked police minibuses near the town of Rafah, and executed 25 officers. 

- All Egyptian news networks have been supporting the government/army, and condemning the Muslim Brotherhood as terrorists. The Arab news network Al Jazeera was forced to close its office in Cairo, accused by the government of sympathizing with the Muslim Brotherhood.

- The government and many Egyptians are also accusing Western media networks of sympathizing with the Muslim Brotherhood, saying that they are too focused on the number of deaths while they overlook the violence that has been instigated by Muslim Brotherhood members and supporters.

- The Egyptian government continues to assert that its actions against the Muslim Brotherhood are entirely justified, claiming that the Muslim Brotherhood is a terrorist organization that must be eradicated.

- The Muslim Brotherhood maintains that Morsi was wrongfully removed from office, that the recent crack down on their members and supporters was an unwarranted massacre, and that they will not cease to resist attacks from the government or military.

- Obama still has not made a decision as to whether he will halt the annual foreign aid that the U.S. government gives to the Egyptian military.

Objective headlines aside, I now comment on the most ironic headline of the week: 

Mubarak has been released from prison.

Former president Hosni Mubarak was released from prison today, after appealing his detention and serving the maximum pre-trial detention period allowed for his corruption case. He still faces charges of corruption and complicity in the deaths of protestors during the initial 2011 uprising. Mubarak will kept under house arrest. For now.

The prosecution has failed thus far to produce any concrete evidence that would convict Mubarak. Clearly, the prosecution is either totally incompetent or a complete sham.  

The government seems to assume that Egyptians have largely forgotten about Mubarak, and that his release will draw little attention amidst the current chaos. A crowd of Mubarak supporters  - believe it or not - actually gathered around the prison today to celebrate his release. 

I do not think the majority's memory is that short. As infuriating as it is, perhaps Mubarak's release will prompt Egyptians to remember the common cause they shared at the start of the Revolution, and bring to light the blatant corruption that persists in the government. (e.g., Are Egyptians not concerned or suspicious that so many current top government officials are former members of Mubarak's cabinet?)

I do not support either side of this brutal conflict. I was optimistic about Morsi's election a year ago, and I was optimistic when the army removed him and assembled a new government in early July. Now I believe that both sides are grossly misguided. And it makes me heartsick to see violence persist in Egypt, regardless of who the victims are. I fear that neither the government, nor the military, nor the Muslim Brotherhood are acting in the interest of the country at large. It has become a battle of wills for self-preservation, with no end in sight. 

The Darkest Day Yet...

Yesterday was a horrible, horrible day for Egypt. By far the worst incident since the Revolution began. 

Egyptian security forces executed a brutal crackdown yesterday on Morsi supporters who had been camped in two Cairo locations since Morsi's ouster in late June. Whatever the initial intensions were, the situation rapidly spun out of control. The death toll now exceeds 600, along with over 3,000 injured.

There is no justification for such senseless violence and bloodshed. And the failure of this new nascent government is even worse than the failure of Morsi's. The new government was composed of what seemed like objective, forward-thinking technocrats who wanted to compensate for the ineptitude of Morsi's party. Now they've made things even worse. The violence and chaos they have caused is even worse than the neglect of Morsi's government. 

I don't see what the government hoped to accomplish by authorizing this move - whoever's decision it actually was -  but they shot themselves in the foot by making martyrs of the Muslim Brotherhood.  

This is the first time in this whole ordeal that I'm really feeling despair - even more so than in the 18 days in 2011 when we didn't know how long it would take for Mubarek to step down. At least then there was a single evil entity, a single goal to rally behind. Now the situation is worse. No one is ready to lead. Everyone is confused and emotional. We thought the new interim government would provide a rational, more careful movement in the right direction, but not anymore. ElBaradei was smart to resign immediately yesterday - I hope that he will step up again when a new government is ready to form. The existing interim government will dissolve under internal and international pressure. The military will likely run the show for a while, which will not ease tensions within the population. Eventually, another transitional government will form, and the cycle will begin again - hopefully, next time, with peace and actual progress.

The good news is that I do not think the situation in Egypt will deteriorate to that of Syria. As bad as things are, the conflicts and divisions in Egypt are different and do not run as deep as those in Syria. Syria is still in a war between the populace and a tyrant whose allies and resources are greater and tighter than what Mubarek had, especially because Syria does not have an army that operates independent of the government. Egypt's struggles boil down to a lack of agreement over the best new direction for the country, and heated emotions and frustrations on all sides. 

I still firmly believe that Egypt has a brighter future ahead. In the immediate future, however, it may be a longer and more difficult struggle than I had hoped for. I doubt that anyone thought it would come to this, and it will be a while before any real solution presents itself. We just have to be patient and supportive, and hope for the best. 

Egypt Square One, 2.0

Egypt's revolution has taken a drastic turn in the last month. For those of you who have not seen the news, or given up trying to make sense of it, here is a recap:

- Early this summer, Anti-Morsi activists started a petition calling for an immediate end to the President's term. Within weeks of circulation, the petition gathered more than 22 million signatures.

- Upon hearing of the petition, President Morsi made a statement saying that he refused to step down because he was democratically elected.

- On June 30, 2013, exactly one year after Morsi was elected to office, some 15 million Egyptians took to the streets to call for Morsi's ouster. Supporters of Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood filled the streets as well. Several deaths occurred amid the protests that day.

- Three days later, the army stepped in to remove Morsi from office and placed him and his cabinet members under house arrest.

- Tens of thousands of Morsi supporters continue to demonstrate against his arrest and call for his reinstatement.

Protesters gather in Tahrir Square on June 30, 2013.

The issue the rest of the world has fixated on is whether or not to call this series of events a "coup." Technically, the military did remove the president by force. However, they only did so because of popular demand, which blurs the line between "coup" and "revolution."

The reason for the U.S. government's preoccupation with terms is the $1.6 billion in foreign aid it gives to the Egyptian Army every year, as it has since 1979 as part of the Egypt-Israeli peace settlement. (Something which has made many Egyptians question the U.S. government's intentions over the years.) There is a stipulation in this agreement which says that the foreign aid must cease in the event of a coup. The U.S. government does not want to have to put this clause into effect, because doing so would compromise the Egypt-Israel Peace Treaty. The Egyptian military has also used much of the U.S. foreign aid money to by weapons and equipment from U.S. companies. 

The other issue raised by this change of events is whether or not Morsi's removal from office was legitimate. But I share the opinion of many on this issue: if Morsi had wished to demonstrate his commitment to the democratic process, he should have offered to hold immediate re-elections, and let the people decide by democratic vote whether or not he should stay. Instead, he gave a dictatorial response and refused to step down.

Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood had already demonstrated their unwillingness to listen to outside opinion. For the last year, they have ignored every suggestion. They made no progress in addressing Egypt's multitude of pressing issues. They had the chance to make history as the founders of Egypt's progress; instead, they made history as another failed iteration of Egypt's government.

I am confident that the next phase will be more successful. After Morsi's removal, the head judge of Egypt's Supreme Constitutional Court, Adly Mansour, was appointed interim President. He assembled a cabinet of technocrats and chose economist Hazem el-Beblawi as Prime Minister. He also appointed Muhammed ElBaradei as interim Vice President. ElBaradei has been an active and eloquent voice of the opposition movement in Egypt since the revolution began in January 2011.

The existing Parliament has been dissolved, and elections for a new Parliament will take place this fall. Presidential elections will follow in February 2014. In the meantime, a committee will form to revise the existing Egyptian constitution and address some of the items that have been controversial. Having a constitution in place prior to presidential elections will help to ensure that the next president does not exceed the boundaries of his office.

Stay tuned...

"All we've done is show that democracy isn't chaos..."

"All we've done is show that democracy isn't chaos... That there is a great invisible strength in a people's union. See we've shown that a people can endure awful sacrifice and yet cohere! Mightn't that save at least the idea of democracy to aspire to, eventually to become worthy of? At all rates, whatever may be proven by blood and sacrifice must have been proven by now.
Shall we stop this bleeding?"
-- Lincoln

Morsi's failure will push Egypt back to square one; The difference between the Egyptian and Jordanian Revolutions

I had been optimistic about Egypt's progress since the inauguration of the country's first democratically elected president, Muhammad Morsi, in June 2012. But ever since January 25, 2013, it seems that Egypt may have to start over its transition to democracy. On that second anniversary of the Egyptian Revolution, thousands of Egyptians launched new demonstrations to protest President Morsi's poor leadership. After nine months in office, the new president has failed to address Egypt's mounting political, social, and economic problems. Egyptians are furious, and many see President Morsi as a puppet of the Muslim Brotherhood. Although it was the most organized party in Egypt at the time of the elections, the Muslim Brotherhood has proved that it lacks the capacity to function as a governing political party. 

This new wave of demonstrations has resulted in more deaths and injuries. Just last Friday, supporters and opponents of the Muslim Brotherhood clashed in the streets around the party's headquarters, with at least 40 people injured. Meanwhile, corruption is still pervasive, the economy suffers, and safety is a major concern for every citizen. Harassment of women in public has escalated. The situation has so deteriorated that I decided to cancel a trip to Egypt I had planned for this month. 

On the bright side, daily life continues for the average Egyptian, though with increased precautions and difficulties. 

Fareed Zakaria recently made an excellent point on his show, Global Public Square: he said that "constitutions should take precedence over elections." He compared Egypt's Revolution to recent events in Jordan: Egypt ousted its old regime, while Jordan's King Abdullah responded to protests by making a few personnel changes and promising reform. Here, the former would seem more in keeping with a revolution agenda.

When it came time to decide how to reform the country's government, Egypt "chose democratization before liberalization." They prioritized free elections, which resulted in a new president and, subsequently, a new constitution. Not surprisingly, the most organized group in the country, the Muslim Brotherhood, was able to dominate the elections and the drafting of the new constitution. And now (whether by their fault alone or not), the newly ratified constitution still carries many flaws: it fails to protect women's rights, and it allows for government censorship of the media. The role of the president is still poorly defined - in November, President Morsi declared that his word trumps that of the court or any other branch of government. (Some would argue that he was justified in this attempt because the court was making it impossible for him to accomplish anything, but the fact remains that every branch of a democratic government must be subject to checks and balances. President Morsi later rescinded this decree.)

In Jordan, by contrast, King Abdullah's first move was to appoint a council to review and amend the constitution. The council transferred some monarchical power to the Parliament and created an independent committee to oversee elections. The elections were held in late January of this year. Ironically, the elections were boycotted by the Muslim Brotherhood in Jordan, who complained that the changes in Jordan had been too minimal, and that King Abdullah was clinging to power. 

But the elections were a success: 56% of eligible voters participated, the best election turnout Jordan has ever seen. Many of the newly elected officials are opposition members, and women now make up 12% of the new parliament, thanks to a quota set by the election committee. While he still retains the upper authority, King Abdullah now rules over a constitutional monarchy.

While this analysis may suggest that Jordan is having a more successful transition, keep in mind the difference between the Egyptian and Jordanian Revolutions: Egypt deposed its political leader and Jordan did not. Jordan's King Abdullah was willing to make concessions. Egypt's former President Mubarak was not willing to change anything. (He made some dubious promises of reform during Egypt's 18-day revolution, but it was clear that he would never act on them - especially after his declaration, on the eve of his ouster, that nothing would make him back down.)

Egypt had no choice but to get rid of its leader. The road to building a democracy for the first time was inevitably going to be slow and frustrating. Yes, they would have done better to ratify a constitution before electing a president - and I suspect that's what will happen now, once President Morsi is removed from office. Jordanians were lucky - they did not have to start from scratch. Hopefully, Egypt will be able to benefit from Jordan's example.